The elections for a new European Parliament take place in all Member States between 4-7 June, signalling a new five year Parliamentary term of office.

The new Parliament will be different from the current one, not just because of a new political composition and the many new faces, but also in terms of its reduced size: there will be 735 MEPs instead of the current 786, due to stipulations in the Treaty of Nice.

Voter turnout and interest

It is difficult to forecast the outcome of the elections. Much depends on the turn-out of voters, which has been notably low until now. Only 45.5% of the EU electorate cast their vote in the 2004 elections, and since then there has been a series of setbacks to the European project, such as the French and Dutch no-votes in relation to the Lisbon Treaty. A recent Eurobarometer poll shows that two thirds of Europeans in 27 Member States may refrain from voting during the upcoming elections. A Eurobarometer survey, commissioned by the European Parliament, reveals that abstentions may rise to as high as 66% of the electorate, leaving a mere 34% participation.

This latest forecast is indicative of the constant decrease in voting numbers since the first elections held 30 years ago. Amongst the apparently least motivated voters are the Polish (17% predicted turnout), Austrians (21%), British (22%) and Portuguese (24%). In Germany the forecast is 43%, France and the Netherlands 47%. The highest participation will in all probability be in Belgium (70%) and Luxembourg (62%) – hardly surprising since voting is obligatory in those countries.

The survey also shows that only 44% of Europeans claim to be interested in the elections; moreover only 16% are aware of the date. The economic crisis may have caused many Europeans to lose confidence in the EU institutions; for example, the European Parliament has fallen by six points in the consumer confidence index (from 51% to 45%) in the last six months.

Because of the fear of voter abstention, the European Parliament has launched an €18 million pan-European communication campaign to try and persuade people to vote. It remains to be seen whether this will pay off.

Predicting the results

At the beginning of April, Burson-Marsteller, one of the larger Brussels-based public affairs and public relations agencies, launched a website  which forecasts the June elections results and the resulting composition of the next European Parliament. The prediction is based on a statistical model of the performance of national parties in European Parliament elections, developed by scientists from leading European universities. These predictions, which are updated every two weeks, use new polling data and up-to-date information about which parties and coalitions will be standing in the elections. The website also provides overall analyses, e.g. on the possible effect of low voter turnout on the predictions.

According to the website, the European Parliament elections are expected to give the following results:

• a decline from 37 to 34% for the European People’s Party (EPP), which will nonetheless remain the largest political group: 251 seats
• a slight progression from 27 to 28% for the Socialist Party (PES): 211 seats
• a retreat for the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats (ALDE): 85 seats
• the emergence of a new group, consisting of the British Conservatives and their allies; this could become the fourth largest group in Parliament: 64 seats
• a retreat for the Greens
• a retreat for the anti-European far right: 45 seats
• an advance by the left EUL-NGL.

In the current European Parliament, the centre-right groups combined have a higher number of seats (42%) than the centre-left groups (38%). However, in the new Parliament the centre-left and centre-right will be evenly balanced, with about 41% of the seats each.

On the basis of this predicted Parliament composition, current Commission President José Barroso stands a fair chance of being re-elected. This would require the Liberals (ALDE) to support an EPP-Conservative coalition in support of Barroso. A more centre-left coalition, of Liberals, Socialists, Greens, and Radical Left MEPs could still block this re-election.

Separate Health Committee?

It is too early to say what the new Parliament’s Committees will consist of, but the voices to establish a dedicated Health Committee instead of the current combined Health and Environment Committee are getting stronger.

This would be a positive development, as a dedicated Committee would in all probability consist of more ‘expert’ MEPs, and there would be more opportunities to get specific health issues such as complementary medicine on the agenda.

Timetable

After the elections, there will be a period during which the important posts will be divided up. The President and Bureau of the European Parliament will be appointed as will Committee Chairs and Vice-chairs. The composition of the various Committees will also be agreed.

The first European Parliament Plenary session where actual EU dossiers will be discussed will take place in September.

Christine Marking
ECHAMP Public Affairs Consultant